“Uganda’s Economic Growth: Mirage or Reality?”

As a seasoned financial journalist with decades of experience, I am here to delve into the economic performance of Uganda over the past four decades. Despite the claims of President Museveni and his supporters, Uganda’s economic growth is not a miracle but rather a modest trajectory that has been sustained over the years.

One undeniable fact is that Uganda has experienced uninterrupted growth since President Museveni took office in 1987. Every year has seen positive economic growth, although not without its fluctuations and disparities across different sectors. While this may seem like good news on the surface, the reality is that the growth has not been transformative enough to significantly impact the structure of society and the overall economic outlook.

A closer look at the sectors driving Uganda’s growth reveals a concerning trend. The growth has been largely concentrated in sectors that do not benefit the majority of citizens, particularly those in rural areas who rely on agriculture for their livelihoods. Despite the economic growth, Uganda remains predominantly agrarian, with most citizens engaged in subsistence farming and struggling to make ends meet.

The disparity between urban and rural areas is stark, with Kampala accounting for a disproportionate share of the country’s GDP. More than three-quarters of Uganda’s economy is concentrated in the capital city, leaving rural communities with limited opportunities for economic advancement. The hardworking individuals toiling in the fields see little return for their efforts, while the unemployed in urban centers struggle to find meaningful employment.

The economic growth touted by President Museveni is largely driven by foreign capital and business interests, further exacerbating the inequality and dependence on external factors. The neoliberal ideology embraced by the government, under the influence of international financial institutions like the IMF and World Bank, has failed to deliver the promised economic transformation.

Despite a decline in the nominal poverty headcount, Uganda remains a poor country with widespread poverty and deprivation, especially in rural areas. The reliance on free-market economics as a panacea for economic development has not yielded the desired results, highlighting the need for a more inclusive and sustainable approach to economic growth.

In conclusion, Uganda’s economic performance may show positive growth figures, but the lack of meaningful transformation and the widening gap between urban and rural areas underscore the need for a more holistic and equitable economic strategy. As we reflect on the past four decades of economic development, it is clear that a new approach is needed to address the root causes of poverty and inequality in Uganda.