Morning Brief: The S&P 493’s earnings slump has come to an end

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“Unveiling the Truth Behind the S&P 500’s Magnificent Seven and AI Dominance – What You Need to Know!”

The S&P 500 has been on a tear this year, up 17% so far. However, this impressive performance has been largely driven by just a handful of stocks, specifically those in the Magnificent Seven and AI sectors. Companies like Nvidia have accounted for a significant portion of the index’s gains, while the rest of the S&P 500 has been struggling.

According to data from Bank of America, the other 493 stocks in the benchmark index have been in an earnings recession since the beginning of last year. Earnings growth for these companies has been flat or negative for several quarters, with no year-over-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2022.

The upcoming second quarter earnings period is expected to mark the end of this earnings recession for the majority of S&P 500 companies. Earnings growth for the non-Mag 7 stocks is forecasted to be 6%, 7%, and 13% annually over the next three quarters.

Despite this expected growth, the majority of profit growth is still expected to come from the Technology and Communications Services sectors, which house AI beneficiaries like Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Alphabet. Health Care is also expected to see double-digit earnings growth, driven by one-time items rolling off the books for Pfizer and Merck.

Some on Wall Street have expressed dismay at the stark performance divide between AI stocks and the rest of the market. However, the strong earnings growth in the Technology and Communications Services sectors helps explain why these stocks have been dominating the headlines and driving returns.

As the market rally continues, some strategists are moving away from using the S&P 500 as a benchmark for most investors, given the low correlation between the index and its constituents. This shift reflects a growing frustration with a market environment that heavily favors a few star performers.

Despite the current focus on AI stocks, there is optimism that the market will eventually broaden out to include other companies. As investors look beyond the headline-grabbing stars, there may be opportunities to uncover hidden gems among the “anything else” category of stocks.

In conclusion, while the market rally has been driven by a select few stocks, there are signs that the broader market may soon see a resurgence. As earnings growth picks up for the majority of S&P 500 companies, investors may find new opportunities outside of the AI sector. Stay tuned for more updates on the latest stock market news and in-depth analysis.