Analyzing the Current State of the Labor Market: A Look at the Economic Model from April 7, 2020

Labor market recovery has been a hot topic since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and economist Logan Mohtashami has been closely monitoring the situation since April 7, 2020. His labor economic model has provided valuable insights into the current state of the labor market and where it may be headed in the future.

Mohtashami’s model predicted a rapid recovery from the initial shock of the pandemic, with job openings reaching as high as 12 million before settling at 8.5 million. Despite recent fluctuations in job reports, Mohtashami remains confident in the trajectory of the recovery, noting that the labor market is less tight than before but still above the Federal Reserve’s ideal target of 7 million job openings.

One key highlight of Mohtashami’s analysis is the prediction that all jobs lost to COVID-19 would be recovered by September 2022, a milestone that was achieved right on schedule. Currently, the total nonfarm payroll employment stands at 158,286,000, nearing the pre-pandemic level of 159 million jobs.

While job growth remains above Mohtashami’s target level, wage growth is showing signs of cooling down, which aligns with the Federal Reserve’s concerns about inflation. As the Fed considers its dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices, there may be implications for mortgage rates in the future.

Overall, Mohtashami’s labor economic model provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the labor market and offers valuable insights into the trends that may shape the future of employment in the United States.