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Bitcoin surged on Monday following an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, with traders increasing their bets on the former president winning November’s US presidential election. The price of bitcoin rose more than 10 per cent to $63,595, its highest level in two weeks, after Trump was injured in the ear during an assassination attempt by a gunman at a campaign rally over the weekend.
Trump, seen as the more pro-crypto candidate, has hosted industry executives at Mar-a-Lago and voiced enthusiasm for US-based bitcoin mining. His campaign has also accepted cryptocurrency payments, a first for a major US political party, raising hopes of a departure from the US regulatory crackdown on the industry seen in recent years.
“The probability of a Donald Trump victory has increased significantly,” said Grzegorz Dróżdż, market analyst at currency company Conotoxia, adding that a Trump presidency would “positively impact” crypto. The implied odds of Trump winning in November jumped shortly after the shooting, according to live trading on political betting site PredictIt.
Shares in Trump’s Truth Social media company closed 31 per cent higher, while prison operators and US gun makers also saw gains. The S&P 500 closed 0.3 per cent higher on the day, with US Treasury yields edging higher in a more muted version of the reaction that followed Biden’s disastrous debate performance.
The shortening odds on a second Trump presidency sent ripples across broader financial markets, with investors believing Trump’s tax-cutting policies would drive up deficits and inflation. The US dollar index was steady, reflecting a small decline in price on benchmark 10-year Treasuries.
Monday’s market moves were seen as reflecting the popular narrative of Trump being good for business and his pro-crypto stance. Analysts at Rabobank noted that the weekend events have led to an increased chance of Trump winning the November presidential election.